5. Energy Scenarios for Africa

Figure 6 shows electricity generation projections from the World Energy Outlook (IEA, 2010). Demand should double between 2008 and 2035 and the energy mix will depend on the policy regime. In a business-as-usual scenario, coal and gas represent the bulk of the growth. With policies under consideration today, demand is 10% lower than in the current policies scenario and the share of renewables grows. In the most extreme (normative) 450 ppm scenario, the share of renewables grows to around 60% and demand is again 10% lower due to end-use efficiency gains.

FIGURE 6: ELECTRICITY SUPPLY PROJECTIONS FOR AFRICA 2008-2035 (IEA, 2010)

Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010

FIGURE 7: ELECTRICITY SUPPLY PROJECTIONS FOR AFRICA 2008-2050 (EREC/GREENPEACE, 2010)

Figure 7 illustrates electricity supply projections by EREC/Greenpeace that extend to 2050. The 2030 projections are comparable with the IEA 2035 projections (Figure 6). The 2050 time horizon leaves suffi-cient room for a radical change. While coal and gas dominate in the business-as-usual scenario, in the policy scenarios (Energy Revolution and Advanced Energy Revolution), solar solutions dominate. The EREC/Greenpeace scenarios exclude nuclear and are less optimistic on hydropower. Analysis suggests that the two energy revolution scenarios are cheaper than the business-as-usual scenario (discounted cost). However, upfront investment costs are significantly higher. Electricity demand in 2050 is higher in the policy scenarios compared to the current policies scenario because of the introduction of massive numbers of electric vehicles. The additional demand created by electric vehicles is greater than the efficiency savings.

There is, therefore, consensus that the use of renewable energy for power generation will increase in the coming two decades. Still, fossil fuels remain the most important source of electricity generation; except if transformational new policies are introduced.

Figure 8 shows primary energy demand projections. Only modest demand growth is forecast in the light of the economic growth projections. In the current policies scenario, demand would grow by half in 2035 compared to 2008. Demand growth would be reduced to a quarter in the most extreme (450 ppm) scenario. Biomass would continue to be the primary source of energy and its use would increase substantially. The use of fossils would be stagnant. The role of other renewables is small in all of the scenarios, less than 10% of primary energy demand.

FIGURE 8: PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTIONS 2008-2035 (IEA, 2010)

FIGURE 9: PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTIONS 2008-2050 (EREC/GREENPEACE, 2010)

In the EREC/Greenpeace scenarios demand in 2050 (in the ER and AER scenarios) is roughly at the same level as in 2030 (Figure 9). However, other renewa-bles play a much larger role and account for approximately 25-45% of primary energy use. The difference between ER and AER is the much higher growth of geothermal energy use in the AER scenario. In all scenarios biomass remains the dominant energy source.

The results, on a regional level, can be compared to the developments in individual key countries. South Africa is the largest energy-consuming country in Africa, accounting for around 20% of primary energy use. It has more than 40 GW of installed generating capacity. This is projected to more than double by 2030. In a business-as-usual scenario, coal would dominate. However, if ambitious new policies are introduced, all new capacity could be renewable and its share in generating capacity could exceed 60% by 2030. Concentrated solar power (CSP) and wind are considered promising options (Figure 10).

Thermal and hydropower dominate the electricity generation in Egypt. While the hydropower potential is nearly exhausted, there is substantial potential for wind and solar. The quality of the wind and solar resources are amongst the best in the world. Egypt has already de-fined its policies for developing these resources and for ensuring security of supply.

In Egypt, the large increase in demand across all sectors is leading to high electricity generation growth rates (around 7 to 8% a year). Electricity consumption has been forecast to rise to 150 TWh by 2012 and 250 TWh by 2020.

In February 2008, the Supreme Council of Energy set a target of 20% renewables (including hydro) in Egypt's power generation mix by the year 2020. Currently, installed hydropower capacity makes up 12% of the mix. Without further investment, this will decline to 8% by the year 2020. Addressing this deficit means that a 12% contribution from renewable sources other than hydro needs to be planned by 2020. Emphasis is given to the development of the wind resource. By 2020, it is expected that wind be contributing 7,200 MW, with an additional 550 MW each year to reach the target.

FIGURE 10: SOUTH AFRICA POWER GENERATION CAPACITY PROJECTIONS 2010-2030 (EDKINS ET AL., 2010)

FIGURE 11: NIGERIA POWER GENERATION CAPACITY PROJECTIONS 2009-2030 (GUJBA ET AL., 2011)

Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa with 158 million inhabitants in 2010. It has a renewable energy master plan (ECN and UNDP, 2005). Nigeria had 6.2 GW of thermal power capacity and 1.9 GW of hydro capacity in 2008, of which only 60% was operational (Wade, 2009). Another 3 GW was under construction. Demand projections vary widely. Sambo (2009) projects that demand will grow substantially to 119.2 GW-250 GW in 2030 (a 10 to 20-fold increase). Other estimates are much lower, at 25 GW in 2030 (Gujba, 2011), while Wade (2009) estimates a growth to only 12 GW for the same year. The average estimate is used here. Nigeria has 14.75 GW of hydro potential, and its development should be a priority. Opinions regarding wind potential vary (Gujba, 2011). About 144 Mt of biomass residues are available on an annual basis. The solar resource is good in the northern part of the country. However, so far, solar has not been considered in renewable energy plans because of its high cost (Sambo, 2009). Figure 11 shows business-as-usual developments and a more sustainable scenario (SDI), where wind plays a more prominent role.

The use of solar is small in all scenarios, yet solar seems the only viable large-scale domestic renewable power option once hydropower potential has been exhausted. This could be supplemented with imports, either electricity generated by wind from the Western Sahara region or hydropower from Congo (Inga).

Ethiopia is the second most populous African country, with 85 million inhabitants. In 2010, power generation capacity reached 2.22 GW, heavily dominated by hy-dropower. Important hydropower potential remains (Figure 12). About 1 GW of geothermal power and significant wind power potential exist.

Moreover, Ethiopia plans to produce 63 Ml of etha-nol and 620 Ml of biodiesel by 2015 (in total, the equivalent of 0.55 Mtoe). About 150,000 solar home systems, 300 wind pumps, 300 solar pumps, 3,000 institutional PV systems, 3 million solar lanterns, 10,000 solar cookers and 9 million improved biomass cooking stoves are planned for 2015 (EPA, 2010).

Algeria plans to install up to 22,000 MW of generating capacity from renewable sources between 2011 and 2030, of which 12,000 MW will be intended to meet domestic electricity demand and 10,000 MW destined for export. This last option depends on the availability of long-term assured demand, as well as attractive external funding. It is expected that about 40% of electricity produced for domestic consumption will be from renewable energy sources by 2030. Algeria is aiming to be a major actor in the production of electricity from solar photovoltaics and concentrating solar power, which will be drivers of sustainable economic development. The Algerian programme provides for the development by 2020 of about 60 solar photovoltaic and concentrating solar power plants, wind farms and hybrid power plants.

Electricity consumption is expected to reach 75 to 80 TWh in 2020 and 130 to 150 TWh in 2030 (Figure 13). By 2030 solar should account for more than 37% of national electricity production. The share of wind is expected to reach about 3% in 2030. The energy ef-ficiency programme includes developing solar water heating and solar cooling systems and desalinating brackish water using renewable energy.

FIGURE 12: ETHIOPIA POWER GENERATION CAPACITY PROJECTIONS 2010-2020 (EPA, 2010)

FIGURE 13: ALGERIAN POWER GENERATION PAOJECTIONS 2010-2030 (MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINSE, 2011)

''The use of solar is small in all scenarios, yet solar seems the only viable large-scale domestic renewable power option once hydropower potential has been exhausted.''